This is old news, in one sense. After months and months of bloody and mostly deadlocked defensive action holding back Russia's attempts to move forward on the frontline in Eastern Ukraine, something totally unexpected began on August 6. Units of the Ukrainian armed forces turned north and crossed the Russian border into Kursk oblast.
But this remains current news, because Ukrainian troops continue to advance successfully into Kursk. Their stated objective remains defensive: many of the drones that continue to bomb Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure have their point of departure in this region. The goal is to take out the most proximate launching pads of Russian bombs and secure a "buffer zone" against aerial aggression while holding whatever territory is taken under a temporary (Ukrainian) military administration. Civilians are not targeted. There appears to be no indication of any intent to carry out "reprisals," although there may be other strategic motives at play.
The strange feature of this manoeuver has been its ongoing success. The Russian border has proven to be poorly guarded, and the troops in the region have been surrendering to the Ukrainians in large numbers.
For a long time, NATO and the West have been limiting Ukraine from using the weapons provided in their assistance packages against targets inside Russian territory, fearing that such use might result in further escalation with perhaps Russia retaliating directly against NATO states, or even using "tactical nuclear weapons" - a threat frequently rattled by Putin's regime over the past two and a half years.
Perhaps there has a loosening of these proscriptions, although Ukraine executed this move on their own, preserving operational security so tightly that they evaded all advance intelligence. They surprised everyone with a brilliant small-scale but (in a certain respect) "full-on" military incursion into Russian territory, with boots on the "Mother Russia's" own ground.
A red line has been crossed.
It's too soon to say what the long-term effects of this shift may be. War is awful and wildly unpredictable, and future scenarios could evolve in many directions.
For the moment, nevertheless, certain indicators are striking. Once again it appears that Emperor Putin has no clothes. Nothing like a coherent response has been forthcoming. The Russian armed forces are not well placed, not well-trained, and not prepared to bounce back from any surprise deviations from a script dictated from the top down. They have lots and lots of human cannon fodder to throw at enemy positions, lots of cheap drones, and weapons supplied by their North Korean and Iranian allies. The whole enterprise remains a disgrace for Russia in every respect. We don't know the extent of Western "disgrace" at present or in the future in terms of drawing out this conflict for their own benefit, abandoning Ukraine at some crucial moment yet to come, or playing the game of "intervening" by using money as a substitute for a real solidarity that is willing to share the risks and responsibilities that the Ukrainian people are bearing in their efforts to defend themselves as a free nation.
What about the nuclear "threat"? While no one wants to underestimate what might be brought on by an act of suicidal fury, there has been very little nuclear rhetoric coming from the Putinistas since August 6. There are factors that make nuclear escalation (and perhaps even conventional escalation) more remote the longer this war goes on. In February 2022, Putin's regime embarked upon the "project" of their "Special Military Operation" not only with their own expectations, but also with what were no doubt the assurances they provided to their relatively new "silent partner" in their investment in Eastern hegemony.
One can only speculate on the details, but appearances indicate that the "silent partner" [not so silent, really] finds itself increasingly burdened by the consequences of Putin's mess, and finds itself more and more bearing the cost (not without some benefits to itself) of Russia's long war and Russia's isolated economy. We are talking, of course, about that Special Unlimited Friendship that was proclaimed just prior to the full scale invasion of Ukraine, that visionary gleam that illuminated the eyes of Emperor Vladimir of All-The-Russias and his "friend," Emperor Xi of the Middle Kingdom and All-Under-Heaven. The latter Empire has the larger claim, but—as has been the practice since antiqutiy—it exercises its claims primarily through "soft power" and its confidence in the superior wisdom of its own system.
I have begun to think that Xi Jinping and his 90 million bureaucrats (a.k.a. the Chinese "Communist" Party) really believe in their own system of maximum political and social control combined with widespread material prosperity. They see it as a viable option for the governments of emerging nations that China wants (and perhaps needs) to do business with. Russia was supposed to be an asset but has turned out to be liability. I think Xi Jinping would strongly object to Putin crossing the nuclear threshold and throwing the world into a panic. Now more than ever, Xi needs “win-win” international projects, lots of trade, and a secure environment that facilitates investment. China is trying to build a global business, and has its own economic problems in its vast homeland. I’m inclined to believe that China would exercise its “soft veto” (which can be hard too, if necessary) against any nuclear adventures Putin might be dreaming up.
Is Russia falling apart? I hope not. I don't want to see Russia become a junior partner in "the Chinese Dream," even though right now things seem to be moving in that direction. Rather, I want Russia to repent of its own 20th century atrocities in the Bolshevik era and disown the leaders who perpetrated them. Then Russia can begin to build anew.
They also must give up nationalistic political control of the Russian Orthodox Church and allow that great spiritual tradition complete freedom to embark on a path of reunion with its sister churches, especially the too-often-persecuted Ukrainian Greek (Byzantine) Catholic Church and a re-emerged Russian Greek (Byzantine) Catholic Church (which shined briefly for a few months in 1917).
Peace and community in Europe require the healing of the profound underlying wound that has afflicted Europe for nearly a thousand years. We need nothing less than full communion between Eastern and Western Churches. This will be the fruit of a grace for which we must pray ardently.
Meanwhile, the Chinese need a bigger dream—something greater than controlling people's minds while filling their stomachs. This too is worth praying for.
Pray for the courageous Ukrainian people--a people of great hearts and immense suffering. Pray for Russia and China and all the nations of the world.
